CNN has posted a projected electoral map of the United States for the 2008 race. It shows 16 states "safe" for McCain and another 7 states "leaning" McCain, safely giving him 189 electoral votes. Then it shows 10 states "safe" for Obama and 6 states "leaning" towards Obama, giving him 221 electoral votes.
But then it has another 11 states listed as toss-ups: Florida, Virginia, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
I am going to bank on McCain winning Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Though, I think Obama will keep Virginia VERY close. If McCain pulls off those 3 states (which Bush won), McCain gets up to 249 electoral votes. 270 is need to be President. If he can pull off Michigan, he's gold. That gets him to 266. Then, he just needs one more state - even New Hampshire will do. But he can pick from one of the rest as well.
The rest are really toss-ups. But Bush won Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, and Nevada. He did not win Michigan or New Hampshire, but if McCain puts Romney on his ticket, Michigan may tip his way. Both McCain and Hillary beat out Obama in New Hampshire. Remember, Hillary's tears? It got her New Hampshire.
Those 11 states could go many different ways, but the electoral map shows that Obama has a harder road to climb than McCain. The "maverick" is in the driver's seat.
But then it has another 11 states listed as toss-ups: Florida, Virginia, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
I am going to bank on McCain winning Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Though, I think Obama will keep Virginia VERY close. If McCain pulls off those 3 states (which Bush won), McCain gets up to 249 electoral votes. 270 is need to be President. If he can pull off Michigan, he's gold. That gets him to 266. Then, he just needs one more state - even New Hampshire will do. But he can pick from one of the rest as well.
The rest are really toss-ups. But Bush won Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, and Nevada. He did not win Michigan or New Hampshire, but if McCain puts Romney on his ticket, Michigan may tip his way. Both McCain and Hillary beat out Obama in New Hampshire. Remember, Hillary's tears? It got her New Hampshire.
Those 11 states could go many different ways, but the electoral map shows that Obama has a harder road to climb than McCain. The "maverick" is in the driver's seat.
1 comment:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan
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